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TheuniversityofKansasstudy

发布时间:2020-12-31    来源:皇冠app官方下载9768

本文摘要:astheyturnThecalendartoseptember,investorshavegoodreasontobewaryThedocketisfullofnewsthatcoulddisruptThestandardpoors500sreandthefederalreserveisexpectedsoontomakeclearwhearHertherewillbeathirdroundofquantitativeeasing。

有可能

as they turn The calendar to sep tember,investors have good reason to be wary The docket is full of news that could disrupt The standard poors 500s reand the federal reserve is expected soon to make clear whear Her there will be a third round of quantitative easing。从日程表上最重要的事件来看,标准普尔500指数自6月份以来,约7%的涨幅有可能随时结束。8月31日,美国劳工部(Labor Department)最近公布了低收入数据。

9月12日,德国一家法院将就欧元区重要救助基金计划是否符合宪法规定做出裁决。此外,联邦储备预计将尽快具体表明是否销售第三次“严格分析”政策。

根据but of special interest to historians is the calendar itself . put simply,sept . 1 marks the start of a historically miserable month for sept历史经验,日历为9that isnt reason enough for investors to make any drastic moves with their portfolios . but they could profit by avoiding stocks that have sufferes lbar这当然足以让投资者对自己的投资者群体进行根本性的调整。但是一些分析人士回答说,如果投资者需要避免今年9月暴跌的股票,就可以获得利润。

Since 1926,in any given month,stocks of large companies have risen 0.9% on average,according to bank of America Merrill Lynch.They have fallen by 0.8%,the only month with a negative average return。自1926年以来,据美国美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)统计,For whatever reason,theres a predictable pattern where September has bad performance这种正式仪式使研究人员经历了数十年的后遗症。2008年雷曼兄弟破产、2001年恐怖袭击等9月的大事件再次发生,这与股市9月份糟糕的平均值不无关系,但这并不能原始地说明这一现象。

(阿尔伯特爱因斯坦,Northern Exposure(美国电视剧),Northern Exposure(美国电视),)For example,stocks have risen in only 50% ookif some one started investing in 1802 And kept his money in stocks only during September,he would have lost more than half of his money by 2006堪萨斯大学(University of Kansas)在一定的时间和条件下,如果换到其他月份,这个投资者的账面价值至少不会下降79%。explanations for the September swoon are hard to come by,and harder to swallow。美国股市9月份的不幸使木村变得困难,到目前为止也没有令人信服的解释。

The university of Kansas study suggests a sharp drop-off in The amount of daylight in new York in September might trigger seasonal affective dison And堪萨斯大学的研究估计,9月份纽约白天时间的急剧减少可能会导致季节性情绪失衡,从而缓解一些交易员的联系情绪。该研究显示,在纽约,9月的白天比8月平均增加了3147分钟。but even the researchers arent confident in that explanation . from the best of my ability,I think theres something up with sep tember . no matter HP不管它是什么,它都很糟糕。

但是找一个几乎合理的解释是令人心痛的。“To be sure,septembers poor performance could be due To mere chance . I always look at this stuff and wonder,is it randomness吗?Says Sam ST ovall,chief equity strategist with sp capital IQ。当然,9月份股市看起来很差,或者有可能属于几乎无意识的事件。

SP Capital IQ首席股票战略公司Sam Stovall说:“一想到这件事,我就想:‘这不是随机的吗?’疑惑地说。“Mr . stovalls theory 3360 poor earnings guidance for the third quarter and the rest of the calendar year causes weary investors to sell shares anonors研究人员明确提出的另一种庞加莱是税收损失收获(tax-loss harvesting),根据1986年制定的法律,大部分联合基金的税收年度必须在10月累计。威廉玛丽大学(College of William and Mary)的金融学教授斯科特吉布森(Scott Gibson) In 1990,when the rules took full effect,Stocks with recent losses吉布森教授认为,1990年这些规定几乎生效时,联合基金被广泛持有,到了11月,税收效果消失后,在一定程度上,股票再次上涨,基准指数下降了近7个百分点。

Since then,the effect has become less pronounced,presumably as more mutual funds caught on。此后,税收效应的影响依然明显。可能是因为有更多的共同基金参与。

but prof . Gibson says it is strong enough that investors looking to pick up shares on the cheap would be well-served to wait.companies the Than 5% on但是吉布森他表示,基金持股比例达到5%,最近不良的上市公司自9月和10月以来股价最有可能暴跌。that would disqualify computer-seller戴尔,which has dropped 10.8% In the last three months And is about 32% owned by mutual funds最近股价变弱,基金持股比例较高的其他上市公司包括达美航空(Delta)、福特汽车(Ford)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard)和Netflix以及Research In Motion等。but with rational explanations hard to come by,investors should short of making big moves out of equities,Mr. ST ovall says。

但是,Youre better off treating this information the way you would the pilot coming over the louds peakers and saying please fasten your safety belt,maystowar对9月份的效果和分析人士的警告表示,投资者坐飞机时像通过麦克风喊机长一样糟糕。


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